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Free race calculators, benchmark data, and training metrics for every triathlon distance from Super Sprint to Ironman.

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Last reviewed: May 2, 2026Reviewed by: Manish Rajput

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How accurate are race time predictions?

Predictions are most accurate when the known distance is close to the target. Predicting a marathon from a 5K has wider confidence intervals than predicting from a half marathon. Training specificity, nutrition, and terrain also affect real-world results.

What is the difference between Riegel and Cameron models?

The Riegel model uses a single power-law exponent (typically 1.06). The Cameron model applies a distance-dependent correction that tends to be more optimistic for longer distances and more conservative for shorter ones.

Why does experience level matter?

Advanced runners maintain a higher percentage of their short-distance pace over longer distances due to superior aerobic capacity and running economy. Beginners typically slow more as distance increases.

Evidence

References

  • Athletic Records and Human Endurance

    American Scientist

  • Endurance performance prediction using running distance-time modelling

    PubMed

This calculator provides estimates based on published exercise science research. Individual responses vary. These outputs are not a substitute for coaching, medical clearance, or your own experience. Always listen to your body and consult a qualified professional before making significant changes to your training.

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Race Finish Time Predictor

Predict your finish time for any race distance using the Riegel and Cameron models. See confidence intervals and multi-distance comparison table.

Known Performance

Known Finish Time

Predicted Finish Time

1:08:59

Confidence range: 1:01:43 – 1:16:16

Riegel Model

1:55:00

Cameron Model

22:58

Predicted Pace

3:16 /km

Known pace: 5:00 /km | Fatigue exponent: 1.06

The fatigue exponent reflects how much slower you run as distance increases. Advanced athletes have lower exponents (maintain pace better over distance).

Multi-Distance Comparison

DistancePredicted TimePace /kmRange
10K38:043:48 /km36:10 – 39:58
Half Marathon1:08:593:16 /km1:01:43 – 1:16:16
Marathon2:10:423:06 /km1:55:01 – 2:26:23
Olympic Tri Run (10K)38:043:48 /km36:10 – 39:58
70.3 Run (21.1K)1:08:593:16 /km1:01:43 – 1:16:16
Ironman Run (42.2K)2:10:423:06 /km1:55:01 – 2:26:23